Report from the New York Times
In Brief – In a short public statement titled “We Must Act Now”, nearly 200 signatories, led by economists, including 15 Nobel laureates, numerous officials from top universities, business and technology leaders, warned that AI could become dramatically more powerful within a decade and urged policymakers to prepare now for both its risks and benefits, especially for employment. Many economists expect AI to create long-term gains but warn it could rapidly displace millions of workers, overwhelming existing safety nets. The group statement says, “Economists, policymakers and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI and to build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society.” It does not propose specific policy measures.
Context – Remember when thousands of brilliant people called for an immediate six-month moratorium on AI development in early 2023 because of the risks. They called for government to impose it. That aged well. This economist-led group at least uses a 10-year horizon. That’s much safer since near-term predictions about AI capabilities and impacts keep missing. Yet, AI doomerism is so prevalent. Way back in February, when the Citrini jobs apocalypse AI fan fiction went viral and moved markets, thoughtful writer and analyst Derek Thompson said his AI discussions with experts quickly became science fiction narratives because nobody knows how things will evolve. I would add that everyone involved, including the AI chatbots, are so thoroughly steeped in AI science fiction that they can’t help but think the real world is moving in that direction. Plus, all the experts and media people who cover them are influencers and doom generates clicks. Another common AI policy refrain is to avoid the “mistakes” of social media, as if there is agreement on that. However, the one thing in digital policy that conservatives agree on is that social media platforms pre-Musk were all progressive bastions enforcing similar woke standards. Now they see AI ideological bias and decry Woke AI. Progressives ridicule the charge. Experts setting guardrails and steering AI… Sure.